Base Rate Neglect
A cognitive bias in which base rate information is ignored or underweighted when assessing probabilities, causing judgments to rely on case-specific details rather than statistical priors. Base Rate Neglect can lead to over- or underestimation of how likely an event is, given the population base rates.
Example: An investor hears a single success story and concludes such results are common, ignoring the base rate that most ventures do not succeed.
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